GOT/ASOIAF: Ruler Beyond the Ice

A mere Night's Watchman, yet he had commanded the Hand of the King to write a certificate of authority as if issuing a royal decree. Though Aegor relied on his black cloak to disarm suspicion, as he walked out of the Prime Minister's Tower with a certificate stamped with the direwolf seal, he couldn't help but marvel inwardly: It seems that as long as you know the right method, these high-and-mighty nobles are as easy to deceive as common folk.

No wonder Littlefinger thrived in King's Landing, manipulating the Baratheons, Starks, and Lannisters at will.

Lies were truly effective.

…

By the time Aegor returned to the inn, night had already fallen. He no longer dragged Yoren around the city. Instead, he rested properly in the room, welcoming the second day of his life in King's Landing with renewed energy.

"You went to Eddard Stark yesterday and asked for two men, a room, and a signed certificate?" Tyrion's sharp eyes sparkled with curiosity. After spending two months in Aegor's company, he'd grown familiar with the man's knack for surprising tricks. "I can understand the first two requests, but what's the purpose of the certificate?"

"To raise money."

"Raise money?" Tyrion blinked, stunned. "If Eddard Stark ever finds out that you used his signed certificate to scam people out of coin... well, he may not have the authority to punish you directly, but with just a letter, you'd probably be dragged back to the Wall in chains."

"We passed through the gates of King's Landing yesterday, and you made some comments about the 'Hand's Tournament.' Do you remember?" Aegor didn't respond directly to Tyrion's concerns but instead pivoted the conversation. "You said holding such events boosts the kingdom's economy. I agree with that—these spectacles make spectators and merchants happy at the cost of significant debt. The king spends an exorbitant amount, but that wealth doesn't vanish. Instead, it's redistributed through the event, flowing from the coffers of the Lannisters and merchant guilds into the hands of the people, tradesmen, and victors. Regardless of his intent, Robert's extravagance isn't entirely without merit in this regard."

Tyrion didn't interrupt. He was curious to see where Aegor was going with this.

"However," Aegor continued, "a large portion of that money ends its journey here. The people of Westeros are notorious for hoarding their wealth—the rich stash their gold coins, the common folk bury their silver, and the poor cling to their copper pennies. Unless it's absolutely necessary, they'd rather hide their money until they die or are robbed. Once King Robert's spending trickles down to the populace, much of it is locked away in private savings, delaying its reentry into circulation. This is harmful to the economy. What I intend to do is extract that hoarded wealth and put it to productive use."

"I've heard similar arguments from maesters in Oldtown," Tyrion mused, his curiosity deepening. "They compare gold locked in a vault to useless stones. Everyone agrees that circulating currency stimulates the economy. But the irregular seasons and constant wars leave people anxious about the future. If those fears persist, no amount of reasoning will convince them to spend their savings."

"Changing the spending habits of all Westerosi is unrealistic, and I'm not that ambitious," Aegor replied with a faint smile. "I'm not asking them to spend their money; I'm asking them to lend it to me."

Tyrion raised an eyebrow. "And how do you plan to convince people to lend you their hard-earned coin?"

"By offering them a chance to earn more in return."

Tyrion immediately spotted the flaw. "So, you're telling them they'll profit, but you actually don't have a way to generate that profit?"

"Not yet," Aegor admitted frankly. "But I'll figure it out in time. For now, I'll use other means to make them believe their money is growing. For example, I'll repay loans with interest—higher than the usual rates."

"Interest?"

"Yes. Let's say 1% per month. If someone lends me 100 gold dragons today, I'll repay them 101 by the end of the month."

"And where will you get the extra one?"

"From someone who hasn't asked me to repay them yet."

"This…" Tyrion's sharp mind quickly grasped the concept, despite Westeros lacking banks or an understanding of investment. "But this will all fall apart eventually. What happens if everyone suddenly demands their money back at the same time?"

"You've hit the crux of the issue. If that happens, it would mean the capital chain is broken. Not even the Iron Bank could survive such a scenario. My job is to ensure that day never comes."

"And how exactly would you do that?"

"By creating rules and incentives. For example: no interest for loans repaid within a month, but higher rates—say 1.5%—for longer-term loans. Or penalties for early withdrawals. Small mechanisms like these can delay payouts and maintain stability."

"But no matter what you do, if the money doesn't actually grow, the day of reckoning will come sooner or later," Tyrion said, his tone unusually grave. "And when it does, the consequences will be catastrophic. If you insist on pursuing this scheme, your head will end up on a spike."

Aegor sighed inwardly. He had hoped Tyrion, with his sharp intellect, would be more open to innovation. Instead, his plan seemed too radical for the Lannister's sensibilities.

"Listen, what I described is only the initial stage of the plan," Aegor explained. "You're right—eventually, I'll need real profits to sustain the system. That's why I'll invest the funds in ventures like merchant guilds, expanding the Night's Watch fleet, and increasing trade between the Grant and Essos. The goal is to generate genuine returns to pay the interest."

"That assumes nothing goes wrong in the early stages," Tyrion countered.

"Yes, but there won't be mistakes in the beginning," Aegor insisted. "I have the seals of the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch and the Hand of the King. If I borrow money in the name of the Night's Watch, rather than as an individual, I'll at least secure some funding. And once I repay the first round of loans with interest, it will establish confidence among the creditors. After that, things will only get smoother." He paused, then asked, "Tyrion, how much money can you spare right now?"

"Less than a thousand gold dragons," Tyrion replied. "Four or five hundred of that is set aside as ransom for freeing you from the Night's Watch. The rest is reserved for supplies—assuming prices haven't risen since I left King's Landing."

"Alright. Let's assume you have 300 gold dragons in liquid assets. What can you do with such a small amount?" Aegor pressed. "It's enough to buy me a few more months of freedom, but it's barely enough to begin mining obsidian."

"I'll find another way for you," Tyrion said firmly. "My brother has money he doesn't use, and if necessary, I can ask my father. It won't be much, but it'll be something. However, I won't help you with this scheme. Fraud is shameful, and I won't condone it."

Staring at Tyrion's resolute expression, Aegor suddenly realized his mistake. At the start of their conversation, he had joked that his plan was to "cheat money." What he'd intended as a bit of humor had been taken literally, coloring Tyrion's perception of the entire scheme.

Damn it, Aegor cursed inwardly. His mind raced as he searched for a way to salvage the situation.

***

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