Chapter 655: The French Predicament
Fallen leaves scattered across the ground formed a gleaming “path of gold.”
Stepping on them produced a soft “crunching” sound, evoking a feeling of comfort, as though walking on a plush carpet. Not a single leaf seemed out of place, with each one like gold, leaving an unforgettable impression.
The joy of the harvest filled the air in Vienna, and in the countryside, Franz and his family were captivated by the breathtaking scenery during their outing.
Franz, swept up in poetic inspiration, was furiously jotting down words, intending to leave behind a magnificent literary legacy for future generations. Unfortunately, lacking true talent, his writing never quite satisfied him.
His verses felt overly contrived, as if composed for the sake of composition, missing the effortless charm of “poetry born of nature.”
Franz had his principles, however, so he never resorted to hiring ghostwriters. As a result, he also had no notable works to his name.
Casually destroying the evidence of his failed attempts, Franz was about to start afresh when a maid rushed over in haste.
“Your Majesty, news has just arrived that yesterday at noon, the Russian government delivered a declaration of war to the Prussian-Polish Federation.”
Upon hearing this, Franz set down his pen and instructed, “Send word to prepare our things immediately. We are returning to the palace.”
The outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War would not only change the dynamics in Europe but also affect the global situation. Although Franz had anticipated this moment, he still needed to return and take charge of the situation personally.…
Since it was a countryside outing, they naturally didn’t travel far. By evening, the carriage returned to the palace. Without time to rest, Franz immediately convened a cabinet meeting.
Foreign Minister Wessenberg reported, “This morning, the Prussian government also delivered its declaration of war to the Russians. The Second Russo-Prussian War has now fully erupted.
This afternoon, Wilhelm I issued a ‘Proclamation to the Nation,’ calling on the people to fight the Russians to the bitter end.
At the same time, they activated a universal mobilization mechanism. From now on, all men in the Prussian-Polish Federation aged 15 to 60 are being enrolled in reserve training.”
“Fifteen to Sixty.” Without a doubt, this represents the most extensive mobilization in Europe and perhaps the world.
The last to mobilize so aggressively was the Principality of Montenegro. During the First Near East War, Montenegro had conscripted all its able-bodied men.
Franz did not criticize the Prussian government’s extreme measures. In a struggle for survival, any decision is understandable.
“How are the people of the Prussian-Polish Federation reacting? Do they support the Prussian government’s actions?”
Extreme mobilization requires complete cooperation from the populace. For example, in World War II, Bulgaria, with a population of only four million, managed to mobilize 1.26 million soldiers due to widespread public support.
Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “The time has been too short for us to conduct a thorough investigation. However, based on prior intelligence, the public seems to support this war.
This is especially true for the Polish population who harbor deep resentment against the Russians. If this war goes well, the Prussian-Polish Federation might truly become a unified nation after the conflict.”
The Polish national independence movement is arguably one of the strongest in the world. Wilhelm I’s ability to bring Prussia and Poland together hinges largely on their shared enemy—the Russian Empire.
Under external pressure, Prussia and Poland have managed to form a fragile union, but in essence, they remain two separate nations. Poland retains its own government, with the only addition being a central government above it.
Currently, the political structure of the Prussian-Polish Federation resembles Austria’s before 1848. Poland is like Hungary, desiring independence but too constrained by the threat of Russia to act on it.
Now, the opportunity has arrived. Once war breaks out, the Polish government will lack the confidence to reject the central government’s interference in its internal affairs. Power is easy to relinquish but hard to reclaim.
Without needing much thought, Franz could already foresee what the Prussian government would do next. Under the guise of joint military operations, they would seize command of the Polish army. Under the pretext of coordinating logistics, they would also take control of transportation and assert authority over local governments.
If their methods are clever enough, they might even weaken Poland by “killing with a borrowed knife,” so to speak—allowing heavy casualties among Polish men during the war. Afterward, Poland would be too weakened to resist the tide of full unification with Prussia.
Prime Minister Felix added, “It’s not just the Poles who want war. In Prussia, the Junker aristocracy holds significant influence, and their appetite for battle is very strong.
The victory in the last war has made many of them overconfident. If they achieve another easy win in this war, some might even consider challenging us afterward.”
For a staunch proponent of Greater Germanism, the Prussian-Polish Federation is nothing short of a malignant tumor. The stronger the federation becomes, the smaller Austria’s chances of unifying the German territories.
There’s no getting around it. While a standalone Kingdom of Prussia could potentially be integrated into the Holy Roman Empire, adding Poland to the mix makes it unmanageable.
Regardless of any shifts in Austria’s national policies, Felix has never wavered in his commitment to unifying the German territories.
Even in his seventies, Felix persists in making annual visits to all the German states to promote the idea of a “Greater Germany.”
This is clearly not something the governments of these states are eager to see. Were it not for Austria’s overwhelming influence and the necessity for vested interests to keep a backup plan, Felix would long ago have been shut out.
Franz smiled slightly while saying, “No need to worry, Prime Minister. The Russians are no pushovers. This war won’t be over quickly.
The British and French are backing the Prussian-Polish Federation, while we’re supporting the Russian Empire. Both sides have money, resources, and determination. In the end, it will come down to manpower.
The Prussian-Polish Federation has better-trained officers and more advanced infrastructure. The Russians, on the other hand, have vast resources and a massive population. Both sides have their advantages. This war will drag on for quite some time.”
Wars between evenly matched powers are often the most brutal. For the sake of mutual interests, Britain, France, and Austria will ensure that neither side easily concludes the conflict.
Foreign Minister Wessenberg added, “Your Majesty, before the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, the Prussian government not only sold off its only colony but also gradually divested itself of all its overseas colonial holdings.
The buyers in every case were the French, even when others offered higher prices. All indications point to some undisclosed agreement between Prussia and France.
During Wilhelm I’s visit to Paris, he even raised the so-called ‘Austrian threat.’ The Foreign Ministry believes that a secret pact between Prussia and France likely targets us.”
Secret treaties are always a headache. Franz had long been the one using secret agreements to outmaneuver others, but now the tables had turned, and it was his turn to worry about them.
After pondering for a moment, Franz waved his hand dismissively.
“Let’s not concern ourselves with the Franco-Prussian agreement for now. Until the Russo-Prussian War concludes, even if they want to target us, they lack the strength to do so.
The French economy is already showing signs of trouble. If their African development plan fails, the good days for the French government will come to an end.”
Ever since Napoleon III annexed the Italian territories, Franz had downgraded the French threat by two levels. While Italy might seem like a lucrative prize, it is, in reality, merely shiny on the surface.
In the industrial era, development is impossible without resources. Italy happens to be one of the most resource-poor regions in Europe. If the French want to fully integrate it, they must first address the resource problem.
Unfortunately, France itself isn’t rich in resources and it struggles to meet its own development needs. With insufficient domestic resources, the only option is to rely on imports. At present, “Greater France” has to import massive amounts of industrial raw materials every year.
Since 1870, France has consistently run a trade deficit. If the franc were a global reserve currency, these deficits could be easily offset.
However, under pressure from the pound and the Austrian guilder, the franc’s international influence has significantly diminished. Increasingly, nations are unwilling to hold francs as reserves.
Under these circumstances, the outflow of gold and silver is inevitable. Luckily for France, many countries still use gold and silver directly as currency. Leveraging its substantial reserves, the French government has been plugging its deficits by selling off silver.
But this situation is clearly unsustainable. The French government faces only two choices: either increase exports or reduce imports.
Boosting exports is out of the question for now. Due to high industrial production costs, French industrial and commercial goods have long lacked competitiveness in the global market.
If exports can’t be increased, then imports must be reduced. This is the context in which developing the African continent became a cornerstone of the French government’s national policy.
Of course, France’s approach to development differs from Austria’s. The French only aim to establish raw material supply bases and have no intention of local integration.
…
At the Palace of Versailles, the news of the eruption of the Russo-Prussian War prompted Napoleon IV to immediately decide to host a banquet to celebrate this good news.
After years of waiting, it had finally come. In recent years, France’s economy had hit a bottleneck and remained sluggish for several consecutive years.
Economic Minister Elsa said, “Your Majesty, the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for domestic industry and commerce, but it also comes with risks.
Compared to the profits brought by the war, the returns from investing in the North African colonies are far too insignificant. If this issue is not addressed, I fear that our African development plan may once again end prematurely.”
Development cannot proceed without capital. Without sufficient investment, the African development plan would naturally be impeded.
French capitalists had little interest in colonial development to begin with. It was only due to excess domestic capital and a lack of viable investment opportunities that the government was able to persuade some to invest in the colonies after much effort.
Now, things were different. With the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, new opportunities for profit had emerged.
Anyone with a modicum of political acumen understood that this war would not end quickly. Any investments in war-related industries were bound to yield significant returns.
Rather than sinking money into colonies with uncertain prospects, it was more lucrative to profit from the war. When faced with such a choice, everyone knew where to put their money.
Napoleon IV’s good mood was instantly ruined. The African strategy was crucial to France’s economic future, but the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War meant that all their previous efforts had gone to waste.